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Transcription of this question: 4.Predicting the futureTraditional secondary research to identify trends, to forecast and to provide data about seasonal andcyclical variation is increasingly outdated, particularly as many products are sold through e-commerce.Today online forecasting is becoming popular. GoogleTM’s chief economist has found a correlationbetween sales Of products (such as cars and holidays) and levels Of online GoogleTM searches forinformation about those products.TO make market predictions, market researchers are increasingly using social media* to collect onlinemessages in order to understand consumers’ moods. They use web-based data to build a “real time”measure Of consumer emotions and preferences and then use the results for predicting consumers’behaviour. Some companies such as Coca Cola@, Starbucks@ and Disney already use social mediafor online market research.Dr Bollen of Indiana University, United States, found that:• livitter users’ collective mood changes coincide with national events.• A correlation exists between trends in national mood (expressed in millions Of livitter messages)and changes in share prices. Three days after an increase in anxiety levels, share prices tend to fall(although it is unclear why this happens).• Investors use social media to guide their decisions.Users Of social media share information online about feelings and purchasing intentions. They areunconcerned by market researchers using software such as “Wise Window” to follow them constantlyin order to forecast demand.Technologically advanced software can recognize sarcasm, double meanings and cultural references.However, interpreting slang expressions remains a challenge.Mr Watts, an Internet researcher at said that to be useful, a forecasting technique must addsomething new to what is already known. The use of social media will only add value to forecastingif Other sources Of information are limited. He warned that sophisticated methods based on theanalysis Of livitter messages, blog postings or Facebook@’ pages have limitations.[Source C International Baccalaureate Organintion 2014]Twitter Demographics (Infographic)Caucasian 18—34(3854%)African American 18—34 (3.3 %)Asian 18-34Hispanic 18—34 (2.4 h)AgeCaucasian 35—49(25.4%)35-49 2.2%Caucasian 50+(17%)African American50+(15 0/0)Asian 35—49 (16 Asian | 0Hispanic 50+(1.1http I(a)(b)(c)(d)8813-5012Describe one advantage and one disadvantage to an organizatione-commerce.(i) Explain one benefit Of sales forecasting for an organization.Of using(ii) Distinguish between seasonal and cyclical variations to predict salesExamine the usefulness Of traditional secondary research to identify markettrends and for forecasting.Evaluate the use Of “social media to collect online messages in order tounderstand consumers’ moods” for making market predictions.[4 marks][2 marks][4 marks][6 marks][9 marks]Turn over

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